Kenya’s construction industry may need to start treating the developing El Niño as a project-planning risk, rather than simply a weather concern.
The latest forecast puts the probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026 at 81 per cent, while the probability of the event continuing into early 2027 stands at 97 per cent.
For Kenya, El Niño is generally associated with enhanced rainfall, particularly during the October–December short-rains season. For construction project managers, the implications could be significant.
Heavy and persistent rainfall can disrupt earthworks, excavation, concrete works, road construction and site access, while saturated ground can affect equipment movement and material deliveries. Poor access can also create delays in getting concrete, steel, aggregates and other materials to sites.
Projects with exposed or weather-sensitive activities on the critical path could be particularly vulnerable. Labour productivity may also fall during prolonged wet conditions, while additional pumping, drainage, protection and site-restoration work can add unexpected costs.
The answer is not necessarily to assume that every project will be delayed. Rather, project teams should review their programmes before the rains arrive.
Construction managers should identify weather-sensitive activities that can be brought forward, assess whether sufficient float exists in critical-path activities, and review temporary drainage, dewatering, site access and material-delivery arrangements.
Contractors and clients should also examine whether their current completion dates are based on assumptions of uninterrupted working conditions through the October–December period.
The biggest risk may be waiting until the rains arrive to react.
With the possibility of a very strong El Niño now firmly on the planning horizon, construction project managers have an opportunity to adjust schedules, strengthen contingency measures and reduce the potential impact on project completion dates.
